On November 25th, Eastern Time, the United States will officially open the Thanksgiving Day holiday, but under the envelope of the global supply chain crisis, ordinary Americans are facing a cruel reality: almost everything is increasing in price!
According to a report by Wells Fargo, the price of turkey in the United States has nearly doubled from the level in 2019. According to the latest turkey market report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on November 5, the average price of turkey nationwide in the United States is compared with the same period last year, there was a significant increase. Compared with the average level of the previous three years, the increase has been further expanded. One of the main reasons is the increase in the price of corn, the main feed for turkeys. In the past year, corn futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have risen by nearly 40%. In addition, bottlenecks in the supply chain and labor shortages are the main reasons for pushing up the price of turkey.
In addition to the price of turkey, the prices of other main side dishes of the traditional Thanksgiving Day meal have also risen to varying degrees. From September last year to September this year, the price of potatoes in the United States rose by 3.5%, and the price of mixed vegetables rose by 3.8%. Cookies rose 4%, and apple pie rose 7.8%. According to recent data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global food price index continued to rise in October, reaching the highest level since July 2011, and at the same time 31.3% higher than the same period last year. And if inflation is taken into account, the food price index is actually at its highest level in the past 45 years.
According to the annual survey of the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of this year’s classic 10-person Thanksgiving Day turkey meal will be as high as $53.31, the most expensive in history. This figure will be 14% higher than last year. If you add ham, potatoes and frozen green beans, the total cost of the meal will increase by another US$15.41 to US$68.72, which is also an increase of 14% over last year. Specifically, the price increase of turkey accounted for a large part. The price of a 16-pound turkey rose from US$19.39 in 2020 to US$23.99 this year, an increase of US$4.60 (24%). The turkey alone accounted for 72% of the year-on-year increase in the total cost of dinner.
The official advice for this is: If you can't afford meat, then eat some vegetarian food. The St. Louis Fed advises people to switch from poultry to vegetables to avoid soaring food costs. It is worth noting that if turkey is excluded from the food basket, the price will only increase by 6.6% year-on-year, which is similar to the increase in food CPI and overall CPI.
Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, said, “There are multiple factors that have contributed to the increase in the average cost of Thanksgiving Day dinner this year, including inflationary pressures in the overall economy, unpredictable demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, and global demand for food, especially high demand for meat."
Although the American people will usher in the most expensive Thanksgiving Day in history, but fortunately, the period of the most serious supply chain problems may have passed. Major U.S. retailers have imported most of the goods needed for the holidays, and ocean freight rates have fallen from record highs.